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Last Sunday, after I posted a warning about the risks of short-term leverage, I actually laid out three opportunities to make a run at that time:
1. Monday opened higher, then fell. Monday did open higher—if it didn’t go, it’s because people thought the drop wasn’t enough, and they kept hoping for a reversal.
2. Tuesday’s Samsung earnings report. If the stock had rallied after the report, that would have been the second chance to run. Unfortunately, the earnings report blew up.
Within the day, SNDK’s biggest plunge was 15%. Now it had dropped enough to scare some people off—they sold at the lowest point. That’s luck, a combined product of greed and losing emotional control.
The good news is that there are plenty of signals showing that long-position robots have started bottom-fishing at 1500. I also posted immediately back then, pointing out an 80% probability that 1500 is the bottom of this week, and I bought SNXX to bet on a bottom.
3. Friday, Hailix IPO. Even though it continued to drop before the open, after the market opened, SNDK rebounded to a 1920 high point; strictly speaking, this was also one—and the last chance to run from last week.
If you know there’s leverage and still don’t run, that’s basically gambling—betting that after a rebound it would break to new highs, and bet on a 2x long on Hailix to bring it back up to the previous high.
Next week’s CPI—if it drops again and creates a second “leg” down, confirming the dead cat bounce, don’t blame the market for not giving us another chance.
Of course, all of this is probabilities. If you bet right, the money is yours; if you bet wrong, you have to accept the loss.
Being overly greedy, not controlling leverage—if there’s even a modest crash and you can’t hold, it’s normal for this year’s profits to be completely wiped out.
But I must emphasize: for the long term, there’s no need to move for now. Optimistically, in the future sndk can still return to 2000, even reaching 3000+.
But that has nothing to do with short-term leverage, because they should have already gone to zero quickly during the pullback.
Thank you, everyone.