Gate Research: Soft U.S. Payrolls Cool Rate-Hike Bets, BTC Reclaims $61K as MAGMA Leads Gainers

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2026-07-03 02:51:15
Reading Time: 3m
Last Updated 2026-07-03 02:59:35
Gate Research Daily Report: On July 3, weaker-than-expected U.S. June nonfarm payroll data prompted markets to scale back near-term rate hike expectations, driving BTC back above $61,000 and lifting ETH toward $1,700, while most major altcoins also moved higher. On Gate’s top gainers list, MAGMA ranked first among tokens with a market capitalization exceeding $10 million, indicating that risk appetite has begun to spread toward higher-beta assets. However, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the Extreme Fear zone, suggesting that the current rally is better characterized as a technical recovery rather than the start of a broad market reversal.

Crypto Market Overview

  • BTC (+2.65% | Current Price: 61,340.4 USDT): As of 08:41 AM (UTC+8) on July 3, BTC remained above the $61,000 level after a sharp rebound, with the 1-hour chart showing an intraday high of $62,200.8. Technically, MA5, MA10, and MA30 stood at $61,507.6, $61,572.3, and $60,994.4, while the EMA Cross (9,26) was at $61,492.1 and $61,101.1. This means BTC has pulled back slightly intraday but still remains above key short-term support. If BTC can reclaim and stabilize above $61,500, the next upside test may target the $62,000-$62,200 range; otherwise, the market will need to watch support around $61,101 and $60,994.4.

  • ETH (+5.77% | Current Price: 1,699.63 USDT): As of 08:41 AM (UTC+8) on July 3, ETH traded near $1,699.63 after touching an intraday high of $1,724.32, showing stronger rebound elasticity than BTC. On the 1-hour chart, MA5, MA10, and MA30 were at $1,700.61, $1,699.77, and $1,657.17, while the EMA Cross (9,26) stood at $1,696.03 and $1,669.46. ETH has clearly moved out of its prior weak zone, but it is also testing a local resistance region. If ETH can firmly hold above $1,700 on volume, the next upside focus will be $1,724 to $1,740; otherwise, $1,696 and $1,669.46 may become the first support zones on a pullback.

  • Altcoins: According to the CoinGecko market heatmap, major altcoins broadly moved higher today, with SOL up 4.41%, XRP up 3.46%, and TRX up 0.44%. Gate's market overview also showed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 21, still in Extreme Fear. This means prices have started to repair, but sentiment remains far behind. In other words, the market is currently seeing a risk-appetite rebound after macro pressure eased, rather than a confirmed broad trend reversal.

  • Macro: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on July 2 that nonfarm payrolls rose by just 57,000 in June, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.2%, both helping reduce expectations of another near-term Fed hike. U.S. equities then closed mixed on July 2, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.14% to 52,900.07, the S&P 500 nearly flat at 7,483.24, and the Nasdaq down 0.82% to 25,832.67. As of 08:35 AM (UTC+8) on July 3, spot gold was quoted at $4,138.16 per ounce, up around 0.40% on the day.

MAGMA - Magma (+40.48%, Circulating Market Cap: $380.00 Million)

According to Gate market data, MAGMA is currently trading at $0.5205, up 40.48% over the past 24 hours. MAGMA is a Sui ecosystem token that is currently being traded by the market as a high-volatility, high-beta ecosystem play. As attention returned to rotating on-chain themes and high-elasticity assets, MAGMA attracted a significant increase in trading activity.

The main reasons for MAGMA's rise over the past 24 hours are as follows: First, softer-than-expected U.S. payrolls helped trigger a broader rebound in market risk appetite, pushing short-term capital back into smaller high-beta tokens. Second, MAGMA's trading volume expanded notably during the day, showing stronger short-term participation. Under the joint effect of sentiment recovery and active capital inflows, MAGMA became the top 24-hour gainer on Gate among tokens with market caps above $10 million.

QANX - QANplatform (+22.49%, Circulating Market Cap: $19.17 Million)

According to Gate market data, QANX is currently trading at $0.011146, up 22.49% over the past 24 hours. QANX is the native token of QANplatform, a blockchain infrastructure project centered on enterprise adoption and post-quantum security, designed to provide developers and businesses with a more accessible and security-oriented Web3 deployment environment.

The main reasons for QANX's rise over the past 24 hours are as follows: On one hand, after majors rebounded, the market began re-pricing smaller infrastructure-themed tokens, with QANX benefiting from the "blockchain infrastructure + security" narrative. On the other hand, the token rallied from an intraday low near $0.00912 to around $0.012, reflecting a visible increase in both trading interest and short-term capital rotation. Supported by stronger thematic attention and improved liquidity, QANX posted a standout daily gain.

GPS - GoPlus Security (+20.08%, Circulating Market Cap: $90.27 Million)

According to Gate market data, GPS is currently trading at $0.010763, up 20.08% over the past 24 hours. GPS is the native token of GoPlus Security, a Web3 security infrastructure project focused on providing real-time protection tools for wallets, DApps, on-chain interactions, and user assets. The project centers on token security screening, address risk identification, and security data services.

The main reasons for GPS's rise over the past 24 hours are as follows: As broader sentiment improved, capital started rotating into mid- and small-cap projects with clearer application cases, and Web3 security became one of the themes receiving renewed attention. At the same time, GPS recorded visibly higher trading volume, indicating that capital was actively trading the "security infrastructure" narrative. Supported by stronger sector interest and short-term inflows, GPS ranked among the top gainers on the day.

Alpha Insights

U.S. June Payrolls Rise by Only 57,000, Cooling July Rate-Hike Bets

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on July 2 that nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June 2026, well below prevailing expectations, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.2%. In addition, April and May payroll figures were revised down by a combined 74,000, strengthening the market view that labor-market momentum is slowing.

For crypto, the key impact is that the report reduced market pricing for another near-term Fed hike. BTC's quick rebound back above $61,000 after the release shows that traders have shifted from fearing further tightening to trading a marginal easing in policy pressure. If rate expectations continue to soften, risk-asset valuation repair may have room to extend.

The Dow Hits a New High While the Nasdaq Pulls Back, Showing Continued Divergence in Risk Appetite

U.S. stocks closed mixed on July 2, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.14% to 52,900.07, the S&P 500 nearly unchanged at 7,483.24, and the Nasdaq falling 0.82% to 25,832.67. This suggests that capital is rotating out of high-valuation tech and chip names into more defensive or lower-valuation areas. Risk appetite is not fully broad-based yet; it remains structurally selective.

For crypto, that matters because the current rally still looks more like a macro-relief rebound than a full liquidity-driven trend reversal. BTC and ETH can keep repairing, but a broader altcoin expansion will still depend on whether global risk assets move from internal rotation back toward more synchronized upside participation.

Gold Rises to $4,138.16 as Defensive Demand and Easing Expectations Strengthen Together

As of 08:35 AM (UTC+8) on July 3, spot gold stood at $4,138.16 per ounce, up around 0.40% on the day. Gold's continued strength after the weaker payrolls report shows that markets are simultaneously lowering rate-hike expectations and preserving defensive positioning against slowing growth and broader volatility.

For crypto, rising gold alongside rising BTC is not a contradiction. The market is not yet pricing a total return of risk appetite; instead, it is pricing easing upward rate pressure and ongoing portfolio rebalancing. If gold stays strong while BTC also holds above $61,000, that would suggest capital is still comfortable allocating to both defensive assets and high-elasticity trades, which is a constructive sign for short-term sentiment repair.

References


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Author: Puffy
Reviewer(s): Kieran, Akane
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