BlockBeats News, December 21 — Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin posted on Farcaster stating that prediction markets are a good remedy for dealing with emotional topics and crazy opinions, citing two screenshots as examples: Elon Musk previously posted that a civil war in the UK is “inevitable,” while on the prediction market Polymarket, the market question “Will there be a civil war in the UK in 2024?” shows only a 3% probability (Vitalik believes 3% is still too high, as some bettors are betting to inflate the probability). Vitalik said that many users on social media exaggerate by claiming “something will definitely happen” to create panic or attract attention, but they are not responsible for it; prediction markets, on the other hand, involve real money bets and are more likely to reflect true probabilities, helping to counter these “crazy opinions.” Vitalik then elaborated on his overall view of prediction markets: compared to social media (which can create panic without responsibility) and mainstream media (clickbait headlines), prediction markets have a stronger “truth-seeking” motivation. Telling the truth can earn genuine rewards, while lying carries strong economic penalties. After discovering exaggerated news, checking Polymarket for the probability can help calm down, and vice versa, it can also prevent false hope. Prediction markets are the “antidote” to social media, providing a more rational and responsible way to aggregate public opinion.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Vitalik Buterin's Portfolio Heavily Weighted to Ethereum, Holds $517M in ETH and Diversified Altcoin Positions
The piece outlines Vitalik Buterin's crypto holdings, showing he holds the majority in ETH (about 224,144 ETH valued around $517 million) with limited diversification into a few altcoins.
Vitalik Buterin's asset mix is ETH-heavy (224,144 ETH ~$517M); minor altcoins exist, but many were sent to him without his conscious investment.
GateNews3m ago
Gensyn Launches Delphi, AI-Settled Information Market Platform
Gate News message, April 22 — Gensyn, a decentralized AI infrastructure network backed by a16z crypto, launched its flagship product Delphi, an AI-settled information market platform that allows anyone to create markets and earn fees based on trading volume.
Market creators pre-select fixed-weight
GateNews47m ago
ETH Liquidation Cascade: $1.51B in Long Positions at Risk Below $2,273
Coinglass data show ETH price thresholds: a drop below $2,273 could trigger $1.512 billion in long liquidations, while a rise above $2,505 could trigger $674 million in short liquidations.
This note outlines potential Ethereum liquidation scenarios tied to price thresholds. A drop below $2,273 could trigger $1.512 billion in long liquidations, while a rise above $2,505 could trigger $674 million in short liquidations, per Coinglass.
GateNews1h ago
Vitalik: Layer 2s Should Focus on Applications Lacking on Ethereum Mainnet
Gate News message, April 22 — Vitalik Buterin stated during a discussion with Xiao Feng that applications need to consider what Ethereum mainnet lacks. Layer 2 solutions should focus on applications that are not already available on the mainnet, rather than duplicating existing functionality.
Buter
GateNews1h ago
Ethereum Liquid Supply Hits 2024 Low on Binance
Abstract: CryptoQuant reports a notable contraction in Ethereum's liquid supply on Binance, with liquid ETH dropping to about 534,000 from a total reserve of 3.44 million. The trend, termed liquidity dryup, could reduce near-term selling pressure and provide price support if demand improves.
Summary: CryptoQuant notes Binance's ETH liquid supply fell to ~534k of 3.44M total, signaling a liquidity dryup that could ease selling pressure and support prices if demand strengthens.
CryptoFrontier1h ago
Vitalik: Post-Quantum Cryptography Solutions Are Mature; Ethereum Aims to Resist Both Quantum and AI Threats
Gate News message, April 22 — Vitalik Buterin stated in a dialogue with Xiao Feng that mature post-quantum cryptography solutions already exist, expressing a preference for the GeoHash algorithm. He noted that Ethereum's vision extends beyond merely becoming a post-quantum chain—the network also
GateNews1h ago
