Ethereum Price Prediction: Whales Reduce Holdings and ETF Outflows Intensify Downward Risk, ETH May Drop to $2600

Ethereum prices have recently been under continuous pressure. Against the backdrop of whale sell-offs and capital outflows, technical patterns are signaling a bearish outlook. Overall, ETH has been trading within a symmetrical triangle for several months, but the price has failed to rebound effectively, raising concerns about further declines.

Data shows that over the past week, Ethereum’s price has fallen approximately 2.5%, retreating more than 5% from this month’s high. Currently, it hovers around $3,100, nearly a 40% retracement from its all-time high. From a capital structure perspective, selling pressure mainly comes from high-net-worth addresses. Santiment data indicates that since mid-December last year, the number of addresses holding between 10,000 and 1 million ETH has been steadily decreasing, suggesting that whales are systematically reducing their holdings. Such behavior often amplifies market sentiment volatility and exerts psychological pressure on small and medium investors.

Institutional movements are also relatively weak. In recent trading days, there has been a noticeable outflow of funds from the US spot Ethereum ETF, totaling over hundreds of millions of dollars, reflecting a short-term decline in institutional risk appetite. Under this environment, retail investors generally choose to stay on the sidelines, and market liquidity is shrinking accordingly.

On-chain fundamentals also show a decline in activity within the Ethereum ecosystem. Data from DeFiLlama indicates that the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi on the Ethereum network has significantly decreased from its peak last year, implying a temporary reduction in capital efficiency and protocol attractiveness. Meanwhile, the derivatives market has cooled down, with open interest in futures contracts shrinking substantially from its peak, highlighting a clear trend of retreat among speculative funds.

From a technical perspective, ETH’s daily chart remains at the end of a symmetrical triangle, with the $3,000 psychological level serving as a key support. If this level is effectively broken, the price could test the important support zone around $2,600. In summary, considering whale behavior, ETF capital flows, and technical patterns resonating together, Ethereum still faces short-term downside pressure, and a true trend direction may be imminent.