Polymarket: Iran ceasefire probability is only 3%, and the surge in oil prices is hitting Bitcoin’s price trend

Gate News message: market forecasts show that expectations surrounding the Iran ceasefire negotiations have clearly shifted to a more pessimistic outlook. The latest probability from Polymarket—based on more than $103 million in trading volume—indicates that the probability of success for Tuesday’s ceasefire deadline set by Donald Trump is only 3%. The market is almost unanimous in its view that an agreement will be difficult to reach in the near term.

In terms of developments on the bargaining track, Iran has rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal advanced through mediation by Pakistan and involving Egypt and Turkey, and has instead put forward longer-term political and economic conditions, including lifting sanctions and permanently ending hostilities. Trump’s side has also made clear that the corresponding response is “unacceptable,” and is sticking to the original timeline, further squeezing the scope for negotiations.

The time structure in the forecast market also reflects the possibility that the conflict may continue. The data show that the probability of a ceasefire is only about 15% by April 15, rises to 29% by the end of April, and does not approach around 59% until June 30. Meanwhile, the contract probability related to the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is only 14%, indicating that the risk of disruptions to energy transport remains heavily priced in.

Energy market expectations are strengthening in parallel. Another forecast—on whether WTI crude oil will hit $120 in April—has risen to a 77% probability, suggesting that traders are generally betting that oil prices will stay at elevated levels. Against this backdrop, the global macro environment faces mounting pressure from overlapping inflation and geopolitical risks.

The crypto market is also affected by spillover. Assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have come under pressure during the phase when risk appetite declines, with capital more inclined to flow toward traditional safe havens such as gold and energy. If the duration of the conflict extends beyond expectations, changes in macro liquidity and market sentiment will still be important variables for the prices of crypto assets.