Bitcoin is closing out Q1 2026 on a sour note. The largest crypto is trading around $66.4k after a quarter that saw shedding nearly half its value from the October 2025 peak near $125k. With macro and geopolitical uncertainty still weighing on risk assets and no major structural level reclaimed, BTC heads into Q2 without a clear bullish catalyst on the horizon.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, it is evident that the descending channel that has governed Bitcoin’s price action since late 2025 remains intact. Both the 100-day MA (~$77k) and 200-day MA (~$90k) are declining above the current price. The $75k–$80k zone, which served as a key support base earlier, has since flipped to resistance and rejected every recovery attempt in March.
Immediate support sits at the $60k band, which held during the February capitulation drop. A breakdown below that level on a closing basis would expose BTC to the $50k zone. Meanwhile, the RSI is hovering around 40, which reflects a market that is stabilizing but far from turning around. Therefore, a decisive daily close above $75k remains the minimum requirement for any credible shift in the broader trend.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
After spending several weeks compressing inside a rising flag pattern between roughly $60k and $75k, BTC has broken the pattern to the downside and is now consolidating near $66. The current range is flagged clearly by the red box on the chart. The triangle’s lower boundary, which had provided support on multiple retests, gave way in the final days of March, and the price has since struggled to reclaim it.
The RSI on the 4-hour is recovering from oversold territory and ticking upward toward the mid-40s. This leaves room for a short-term bounce. However, the key test will be whether BTC can reclaim the broken pattern support and build above it. Failure to do so keeps the path open toward a retest of the key $60k–$62k support zone.
On-Chain Analysis
One of the more compelling data points heading into Q2 is Bitcoin’s exchange reserve, which has dropped to approximately 2.7M BTC. This is the lowest level in the entire dataset going back to late 2022. The decline has been especially relentless over the past couple of weeks, as the market is trying to form a bottom above $60k
In isolation, declining exchange reserves are typically interpreted as a bullish structural signal, because fewer coins on exchanges means reduced immediate sell-side availability. However, the context matters.
Reserves have been falling alongside price, not ahead of a recovery, which suggests the outflows reflect long-term holder accumulation rather than incoming demand. So, until fresh buyers step in and translate that supply tightness into actual price appreciation, the on-chain picture remains constructive in theory but unconfirmed in practice.
SPECIAL OFFER (Exclusive)
Binance Free $600 (CryptoPotato Exclusive): Use this link to register a new account and receive $600 exclusive welcome offer on Binance (full details).
LIMITED OFFER for CryptoPotato readers at Bybit: Use this link to register and open a $500 FREE position on any coin!
Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.
Tags:
Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Traditional Brokerage to Launch Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum Trading in Coming Weeks at 0.75% Fee
A traditional brokerage is set to launch spot cryptocurrency trading for retail clients, offering Bitcoin and Ethereum access. The service will include multiple trading platforms, a 0.75% fee, and additional crypto assets planned for the future, reflecting a trend of traditional finance entering the crypto space.
GateNews2m ago
Bhutan Sells $18.46M Bitcoin as Price Nears $74k Resistance
The Royal Government of Bhutan transferred approximately 250 BTC worth $18.46 million in the past 24 hours, according to on-chain data from Arkham, continuing a broader pattern of reduced Bitcoin holdings. The transfers included 162 BTC and 69.7 BTC sent to new wallet addresses within a short
CryptoFrontier21m ago
Bitcoin's BIP-361 Quantum Fix Splits Community Over Address Freezing
A proposed Bitcoin improvement to address quantum vulnerability has divided the cryptocurrency community over whether to freeze legacy addresses, including those attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto. The BIP-361 proposal, which went live on April 14, has sparked debate between prominent figures including
CryptoFrontier1h ago
Zonda Exchange Discloses 4,500 BTC Cold Wallet as Private Keys Remain Untransferred
Zonda, a Polish crypto exchange, revealed a cold wallet with 4,503 BTC amid a withdrawal crisis. CEO Przemysław Kral addressed fund misappropriation allegations and promised legal action against false claims, emphasizing that private keys were never transferred due to the former CEO's disappearance.
GateNews1h ago
Ben McKenzie Slams Bitcoin on Jon Stewart Show
Actor Ben McKenzie appeared on The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart on Aug. 14 in a segment titled "The Other Side of Bitcoin: Crypto Corruption," where he delivered a sharp critique of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency industry. McKenzie, known for his film and television work, has become a
CryptoFrontier2h ago
BTC edges up 0.46% in 15 minutes: institutional fund outflows and macro risk-off sentiment in sync drove the move
From 15:00 to 15:15 (UTC) on 2026-04-16, BTC logged a +0.46% return within 15 minutes. The price fluctuated in a range of 73,939.7 to 74,440.0 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.68%. During this time window, market attention increased, short-term volatility intensified, and fund-flow characteristics changed noticeably.
The main driver of this deviation is the continued outflow of large amounts of capital from exchanges. According to on-chain data, in the past 24 hours the net flow was -14,408.84 BTC, mainly concentrated in large transfer ranges of more than $1 million (especially>$10M net outflow -12,987.03 BTC). This shows that institutions and large holders actively reduced their BTC holdings on exchanges, and short-term selling pressure was significantly lowered. Against the backdrop of persistently weak liquidity, with order book depth remaining at a low level for a long time, the price has become more sensitive to medium-sized buy orders—amplifying the impact of even modest inflows on spot market price action.
In addition, macro conditions changed in parallel and produced a synchronized effect: easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted overall market sentiment. International gold prices rose, global equity markets hit new highs, and the market re-evaluated the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates within the year, further increasing investor attention to safe-haven assets (including BTC). At the same time, on-chain data indicates that the “whale” trading activity during this phase is at an annual low (>$1M transfers fell to 1,485 transactions). With heavy market wait-and-see sentiment and limited short-term supply, BTC’s responsiveness to sudden buy-side capital was further enhanced.
Investors should be reminded that current market liquidity is still fragile. Insufficient order book depth increases the market’s sensitivity to large capital movements, and short-term volatility may intensify. Going forward, focus on further shifts in on-chain large-fund flows, changes in price action as it breaks through support or resistance regions, and the risks and opportunities brought by related macro policies and geopolitical developments. Please continue to track key data and stay alert to any sudden shocks during the period of abnormal moves.
GateNews2h ago
