Recently, it has been observed that Bitcoin miners are in the least active seller state in years, which actually reflects an interesting market phenomenon.

The Miner Position Index (MPI) currently reads -1.04, one of the lowest levels in history. Simply put, this indicator measures the outflow of coins from miners relative to the 12-month moving average. When the reading rises, miners send more coins to exchanges, increasing selling pressure; when it drops or turns negative, it indicates miners are hoarding coins, expecting higher prices.

Looking at past data makes this clear. A similar extreme negative MPI occurred at the end of 2016, followed by the 2017 bull market. In mid-2024, the MPI again approached the -1 threshold, and subsequently Bitcoin rebounded past $100,000. We are now in a similar position again, but there is a key point that is often overlooked.

The difference in what history reflects is that a low MPI reading itself does not equal a price bottom. More important signals emerge when the indicator begins to recover from depressed levels — indicating miners are re-engaging, and market conditions are improving. This combination is more reliable than simply low readings.

The current setup has eliminated the structural resistance of miner selling pressure, but that’s only half the story. A reading of -1.04 merely removes downward pressure; it does not create upward momentum. The key question is: who will fill this gap? The market needs enough buying power to absorb the existing supply and drive new price discovery.

Recent data shows mixed signals on demand. Spot ETFs are still experiencing outflows, open interest is near multi-month lows, and altcoin trading volume has been compressed to very low levels. This reflects that although miner selling pressure has disappeared, market demand is still not strong enough.

So, the current situation is: miners are not selling, but the market is not ready to absorb. The real actionable signal should come when MPI begins to rebound from these extreme levels — only then can we confirm miners are re-engaging and market conditions are truly improving. The current question marks remain honest.