An interesting dynamic is developing in the autonomous transportation segment. Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber, recently shared his vision of what the platform might look like in a few decades. According to him, most trips could be performed by automated vehicles, but this is a 15-20 year horizon, not the near future.

Interestingly, Khosrowshahi emphasized that this is not just a technological challenge. Companies need regulatory approval, to establish vehicle manufacturing, and to develop sensor systems. In his words, they operate in the physical world, not in virtual space. Uber has already launched a separate division, Uber Autonomous Solutions, to coordinate global initiatives for robotaxi deployment.

Meanwhile, competition in this area is intensifying. Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, is actively expanding its autonomous taxi services in American cities. Tesla, on its part, is betting on camera-based autonomy and plans to maintain the largest fleet of autonomous vehicles. Even Zoox has joined the race. Interestingly, Waymo recently clarified to Congress that its robotaxis are not remotely operated in the US, although the company maintains remote support centers in the Philippines with about 70 operators.

According to Goldman Sachs forecasts, by 2025, the robotaxi market in the US will grow rapidly, but by 2030, it will only occupy a small share of the overall ride-sharing market. It turns out that although Dara Khosrowshahi envisions a future where robotaxis dominate, the path there will be long and will require significant investments in regulatory frameworks, infrastructure, and technology. It’s more of a marathon than a sprint.