"End-of-day report"机构实地考察：霍尔木兹海峡进入「热战与商业外交并行」新阶段

Mars Finance News: On April 6, the “Final Daily Report” author Citrini Research released a “Field Survey Report on the Strait of Hormuz.” It is understood that Citrini Research dispatched an analyst proficient in four languages (including Arabic) to conduct an on-site inspection aboard a ship in the central area of the Strait of Hormuz, in order to determine the strait’s actual conditions. Citrini Research’s analyst said that investors should abandon the binary mindset of “open/closed.” The reality of the Strait of Hormuz is more complex: a hot war and commercial diplomacy are proceeding in parallel, and traffic volume is expected to gradually rebound as the conflict continues. What is happening cannot be simply judged as “escalation/de-escalation of conflict” or “opening/closing of the strait.” The United States is conducting military actions, while its allies (such as France, Japan, and Greece) are actively negotiating with Iran for navigation rights. This is a typical symptom of a multipolar world.

At present, Iran has established a functional navigation inspection station between Qeshm Island and Larak Island. All approved traffic is routed through Iran’s territorial waters (rather than traditional shipping lanes). Ships or their flag states contact Iran via intermediaries, submit information such as ownership, cargo, and crew, and pay transit fees. After review, a confirmation code is issued and the vessel is escorted through. Vessels that are not approved wait.

The analyst said that Iran’s position is “not looking to close the strait,” and its goal is to create a sovereign system similar to Turkey’s management of the Bosphorus Strait. While controlling navigation and collecting fees, it would allow commercial traffic to operate, shaping itself as a responsible manager of global trade and isolating the United States.

And while demanding that Iran open the strait, it imposes no fee and carries out military strikes at the same time. But a complete closure of the strait would lead to a global economic disaster (currently, the estimated net loss in global commercial crude oil inventories is 10.6 million barrels per day). Most other countries (a list that is rapidly expanding, including China, India, Russia, Japan, France, and the UAE, among others) choose to reach deals with Iran to secure their own energy supplies.

The analyst expects that as the conflict continues, traffic through the strait will rebound. The process will be chaotic, and the vessels that pass through will be mainly LPG carriers and small tankers; larger tankers such as VLCCs will still be fewer. This is not enough to prevent a global economic collision, but it is far better than a complete closure. However, Iran is actively constraining the Houthi forces’ actions in the Red Sea / the Strait of Mandeb, treating it as an upgrade card that has not yet been played.

Regardless of whether the strait is open or closed, freight rates will stay high, and tanker stocks may not have peaked (e.g., BWET). The Federal Reserve may see through the impact of the conflict, and there is room for rate-cut expectations to shift forward again—meaning rate cuts could happen earlier than what the current market pricing implies. There is also further room for this “earlier” expectation to expand.