Just stumbled upon something that really got me thinking. You know Curtis Faith, the guy who wrote 'The Turtle Trading Rules'? Turns out he's hit rock bottom—homeless, arrested for disturbing the peace in Massachusetts, with his address registered as a shelter. Last I heard, he had only 27 dollars in his pocket. His wife is unemployed and their finances have completely collapsed. It's a wild contrast to who he used to be.

Back in 1983, Curtis Faith was just 19 years old when Richard Dennis—this legendary futures trader—hand-picked him for the famous Turtle Trader program. He was the youngest in the group. Dennis basically recruited ordinary people (teachers, programmers, casino players, nobody with formal training) and taught them a mechanical trading system based on trend following, risk diversification, and strict position control. Over 4-5 years, these turtle traders collectively made over 100 million dollars. Curtis Faith himself made tens of millions in his twenties and became the poster child of the turtle myth.

But here's where it gets interesting. After leaving the turtle team, Curtis Faith tried launching his own ventures—companies in IT, high-tech, you name it. Most failed. He published 'Way of the Turtle' in 2007, which became popular in investment circles (I actually bought a copy back then). He was doing financial education stuff, giving lectures, selling courses. But the book money dried up.

Then in the 2010s, Curtis Faith pivoted to Bitcoin and blockchain. He tried launching prediction market and gambling-related blockchain projects. They didn't work out. He lost almost everything in the process, and his family relationships suffered too. A few years ago, the news broke about his arrest, and yeah, his last known address was a shelter.

So what's the lesson here? First, don't blindly trust fund managers who write books. Here's my take: most people who write investment books in their 30s-50s aren't doing it for wisdom—they're building a persona to sell products and boost their reputation. Curtis Faith is a perfect example. People treated him like a trading idol, yet even someone writing books on how to make money couldn't execute his own strategy in the real world.

Second, don't get too caught up in speculation. Trend trading has its place—it's objective, disciplined, and catches major moves. But it also comes with high volatility, deep drawdowns, and psychological pressure from constant stop-losses. Jesse Livermore, another trend trading legend, ended up committing suicide. Meanwhile, Buffett's value investing style—boring, patient, long-term—actually works better for most people, even if it's not sexy during bull markets.

Third, and this one's crucial: making 3x returns in a year is easy; making steady returns over three years is hard. During bull markets, everyone looks like a genius because assets are rising across the board. People chase stocks, feel invincible, brag about their gains. But when the bull ends, most people don't take profits—they hold full positions, sometimes with leverage, and watch it all evaporate in the downturn. The money wasn't from skill; it was from market conditions. By the time the bear market hits, most retail investors are stuck holding bags.

Real long-term winners gradually trim positions during late bull stages and shift to stable allocations. They understand that without genuine edge and discipline, any profits you make will eventually flow back to the market.

Looking at the A-share market right now, I still think we're not at peak conditions. Management seems supportive, participation isn't crazy high yet, and plenty of stocks still aren't moving. There's room to observe and be selective. If I spot warning signals worth sharing, I'll write about them. Based on my track record, I've been pretty good at calling market risks early.