“End of Day Report” On-Site Inspection: The Strait of Hormuz Enters a New Phase of “Hot War and Commercial Diplomacy Running in Parallel”

On April 6, the author of the “End of Day Report,” Citrini Research, released an “On-Site Inspection Report of the Strait of Hormuz.” It is reported that Citrini Research sent an analyst fluent in four languages (including Arabic) to conduct an on-site inspection by boat in the center of the Strait of Hormuz, to determine the Strait’s actual situation.
The Citrini Research analyst said that investors should give up binary thinking of “open/closed.” The reality of the Strait of Hormuz is more complex: a hot war and commercial diplomacy are proceeding in parallel, and traffic volume is expected to gradually recover as the conflict continues. What is happening cannot be simply judged as “escalation/de-escalation of conflict” or “opening/closing of the strait.” The United States is carrying out military operations, while its allies (such as France, Japan, and Greece) are actively negotiating with Iran for navigation rights. This is a typical symptom of a multipolar world.
At present, Iran has established a functional navigation checkpoint between Qeshm Island and Larak Island. All approved traffic is routed through Iran’s territorial waters (rather than traditional shipping lanes). Ships or their flag states contact Iran via intermediaries, submit information such as ownership, cargo, and crew, and pay transit fees. After review, a confirmation code is issued, and the vessel is escorted through. Unapproved ships must wait.
Asking Iran to open the strait with no charge, while carrying out military strikes as well, is also an option. But completely closing the strait would cause a global economic disaster (currently, the estimated net loss of global commercial crude oil inventories is 10.6 million barrels per day). Most other countries (the list is rapidly expanding, including China, India, Russia, Japan, France, Malaysia, and so on) choose to reach deals with Iran to secure their own energy supplies.$BNB
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