DanielRomero

The numbers coming out of Samsung are absurd
My issue is the overhang risk of union-led strikes
Either Samsung gives up 20% of its operating profit, or it could face a production shutdown
If not for that, I think the stock would be performing much stronger

$SIVE has 4x more debt than cash and a 9-month runway
The stock went up 4x after becoming a new Fintwit favourite
If management is competent, they will do a raise to clean up their debt
They are paying 10%+ rates with already weak financials
If they do a large raise, it will signal they are serious about expansion and not just focusing on maintaining their ownership

If we annualize Q1 earnings
Memory makers are trading roughly at:
- $MU: 6x operating profit
- $SSNLF: 8x operating profit
- $HYNSE: 5x operating profit

The average Fintwit experience is being told to buy a bottleneck supplier early, then checking the chart and seeing that it looks like this

Erste Group upgraded $AMD to Buy from Hold because it sees stronger data center demand, better profitability, and a more attractive product setup than before
The note says AMD expects Q1 2026 revenue growth of 32% year over year, driven by rising demand for high performance data center CPUs and GPUs
The analyst also highlighted AMD’s improving operating margin trend and argued that the valuation still looks attractive, with the article citing a PEG ratio of 0.49 and saying AMD appears undervalued based on fair value calculations
A key part of the bullish view is the upcoming Instinct MI450, bu

$INTC is reportedly planning another CPU price increase in May amid massive demand
The company already implemented an initial 10% to 15% CPU price hike, then followed it with another increase of around 15% in March
According to Chinese market research firm Minutes Logic Society, $INTC is now expected to raise prices again in May across its overall CPU portfolio
That would bring the cumulative price increase target to roughly 30% above 2025 pricing

DRAM prices are up another 30%
At some point, $MU will become undeniable to the market

Long $AMD / $INTC, short $ARM / $QCOM just makes sense
AMD at only 2x the market cap of ARM while net profit is 6x higher and growing faster makes no sense
QCOM will go through hell over the next two years. The company got hit by Apple first and then by memory prices. NVIDIA is also outcompeting them in automotive. Their AI racks are pure desperation
INTC at only a 70% higher market cap than ARM is ridiculous. The CPU business alone should be worth twice as much on a normalized basis. Foundry makes up for the rest

SMR stocks are giving up all their gains from 2025
Down from 2025 highs:
$SMR: -80%
$IMSR: -77%
$OKLO: -73%
$NNE: -73%

$INTC kept losing server market share to $AMD in 2025 for the ninth consecutive year

An Air Force B-52 Stratofortress refueling from a KC-135 Stratotanker during Operation Epic Fury
Spectacular engineering

$IVN is down 50% from its highs
A very interesting company at an $11B market cap now
Copper is in a structural upcycle
The next few years will probably be even worse from a supply perspective
Kamoa-Kakula is one of the largest and most efficient mines in the world
It also offers exposure to zinc, platinum, palladium, rhodium, and gold
Any thoughts on this one?

$MU has to trade at 4x earnings because of oversupply fears, but photonics stocks can trade at 10x sales because cyclicality would somehow only affect DRAM and NAND

According to TrendForce reports
•DRAM prices in Q1 2026 are expected to rise ~90–95% QoQ
•NAND prices are also rising sharply, around 55–60% QoQ
$MU $HXSCL $SSNLF

KeyBanc analyst John Vinh has noted that $INTC's server CPUs for 2026 are almost completely sold out due to unprecedented hyperscaler demand
This comes after a report from Nikkei Asia, indicating that both Intel and $AMD have notified partners of CPU price hikes of 10% to 15%

$MU keeps cleaning up the balance sheet
Micron just priced cash tender offers for up to $5.4B of outstanding senior notes
The goal is to retire relatively expensive debt carrying coupons ranging from 5.3% to 6.05%
As Micron can’t launch a new share repurchase program until 2027, this is the best way to deploy capital