Ethereum Bear Pennant Menargetkan $1.800 saat TVL Mencapai 55% dari Titik Terendah

Ethereum telah membentuk bear pennant pada chart harian, pola konsolidasi teknikal yang menargetkan penurunan ke sekitar $1.800—penurunan 14% dari level saat ini—menurut analisis pasar Cointelegraph yang diterbitkan pada 26 Mei. Setup bearish ini menyusul penurunan ETH sebesar 13% dari titik tertinggi multi-bulan di atas $2.400. Nilai total yang terkunci (TVL) Ethereum telah turun menjadi $116 miliar, level terendahnya sejak April 2025, yang berarti turun 55% dari puncak sepanjang masa senilai $258 miliar yang tercatat pada 14 Agustus 2025. Konvergensi melemahnya fundamental on-chain dan memburuknya kondisi teknikal telah meningkatkan tekanan ke bawah pada aset asli jaringan.

Technical Breakdown Follows 13% Decline

The bear pennant—a consolidation between two converging lines after a sharp price decline—will resolve once ETH breaks below the lower trend line at approximately $2,060, according to Cointelegraph's report. This breakdown follows ETH's breach of an ascending trend line that had supported the price since early February. The pattern's measured move targets the $1,800 level if the breakdown confirms.

Critical Support Levels Signal Pivotal Moment

Crypto analyst Chain Mind posted on X that the current juncture is decisive, stating: "This is the crucial moment for ETH," and warning that failure to reclaim the broken support level would expose the asset to areas below $1,800. Separately, analyst Alex Marzell noted that a move below $2,050 would increase the probability of ETH reaching the $1,800 support zone.

Layer-2 Ecosystem Under Pressure

Ethereum's layer-2 networks have experienced steep TVL declines, with CryptoRank highlighting that Arbitrum has declined 63%, zkSync 64%, and Linea 98% from recent highs. CryptoRank stated in a Telegram note: "This reinforces the broader picture of capital fragmentation in Ethereum's rollup ecosystem and undermines the 'unified liquidity pool' effect that early L2 development models envisioned." The firm attributed the sharpest L2 corrections to "high liquidity sensitivity to incentive programs and short-term reward mechanics."

Industry Context

A large Ethereum whale opened a $100 million short position, according to Cointelegraph reporting, suggesting institutional participants are actively positioning for further downside. The Ethereum Foundation has faced additional scrutiny following recent high-profile departures, adding to bearish market sentiment.

Skenario Breakdown yang Terkonfirmasi

Breakdown yang terkonfirmasi di bawah $2.060 akan mengaktifkan measured move dari bear pennant menuju $1.800. Analisis Cointelegraph menunjukkan bahwa jika level-level support kunci tidak bertahan, tren turun ETH kemungkinan akan berlanjut mendekati $1.750 dalam jangka pendek.