BTC up slightly 0.39% in 15 min: the US-Iran conflict paused and macro risks eased, driving a modest rebound

From 22:30 to 22:45 UTC on July 26, 2026, BTC inched higher, with a Return % of +0.39%. The price range was 65,202.4–65,494.4 USDT, with an Ampl of 0.45%. Overall, it was a mild uptrend in a low-volatility, low-amount environment.

The main driver behind this move was that the US-Iran geopolitical conflict was paused for two consecutive days. Trump postponed his plans to escalate against Iran after intercept missile stockpiles ran out. Iran also paused attacks targeting US allies. With geopolitical risk at the margin easing, safe-haven pressure in the market was reduced, giving risk assets—including BTC—some breathing room.

At the same time, Fed Chair Warsh emphasized that inflation would be met with “zero tolerance.” As the probability of a July rate hike fluctuated, policy uncertainty increased. US Treasury yields surged at one point, but the market still retained some confidence in the resilience of crypto assets. Oil prices pulled back from their highs to $101.85 (down $3.06), while gold edged higher. BTC benefited from the “digital gold” narrative and received support. However, it should be noted that this round of gains was driven by the reallocation of existing capital; there has not been a noticeable increase in new investors, and the K-line filled amount was only about 87 BTC—so the upside lacks strong capital momentum.

Order book data shows the buy/sell depth ratio is only 0.16, indicating a severe sell-side advantage. At $65,223.2, there is a large sell wall of 0.3866 BTC (accounting for 68.1% of the top 5 levels). Near-term resistance is concentrated in the $65,200–$65,250 area. The daily and 1-hour moving averages are bullish, but the 4-hour moving average is bearish—there is a clear split between bulls and bears. The ADX indicator shows no clear trend.

Keep an eye on whether the US-Iran conflict escalates again, the Fed’s July interest rate decision, and the progress of negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. For BTC, near-term support to watch is $64,650; a breakdown below could trigger selling. Whether the filled amount can expand will be key to judging how sustainable this upswing is.