Five Australian Banks Differ on June RBA Decision Amid Inflation Uncertainty

According to a Jin10 compilation of major investment banks, Australian lenders are divided on the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision expected in June. Westpac, Macquarie Group, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, and National Australia Bank have issued conflicting forecasts on both the near-term and medium-term policy outlook.

Westpac expects the RBA to pause rate hikes in June but resume with two increases in August and September due to persistent inflation pressures. Macquarie anticipates a June pause paired with hawkish signals to strengthen expectations for August rate hikes. The other three banks predict the RBA will hold rates steady in June, with divergence on subsequent moves: some see no further rate changes through 2026, while others suggest potential cuts in 2027 or conditional hikes if inflation surprises to the upside.