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Goldman Sachs Sets 5% as Critical Threshold for U.S. Stock Collapse Amid Rising Treasury Yields

Stocks Indices Forex

2026-06-15 17:07:35

According to Goldman Sachs, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 5% represents a critical systemic risk threshold for U.S. equities, as highlighted by the bank's trading chief Tony Pasquariello. Using historical data and quantitative models, Goldman found that only when the 10-year yield rises by roughly two standard deviations within a single month does the stock market face structural valuation pressure; the current economic backdrop suggests this panic threshold is approximately 5%. While recent debt market repricing due to slower inflation decline and fiscal deficit concerns has pushed the yield curve higher, this critical line remains at a safe distance. Goldman also emphasized that strong AI-driven capital expenditure cycles provide crucial support for equities, with global hyperscaler cloud providers expected to surpass $1 trillion in capex by 2027, offsetting some valuation pressure from rising rates.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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