Grayscale CLO Points to 5% Orchard Balance Decline as Signal Against Zcash Exploit, Polymarket Shows 10% Odds on June 5

According to Grayscale Chief Legal Officer Craig Salm, Zcash Orchard pool balances declined only approximately 5% since the June 4 vulnerability disclosure, suggesting the exploit risk may be lower than prediction markets indicate. Polymarket opened a contract on June 5 pricing a 10% probability that the Orchard pool vulnerability was exploited before the fix, with $14,306 in volume.

Salm argued that Orchard users, who hold potentially billions of dollars at stake, represent a more reliable "prediction market" than external betting odds. "These are the users with strong economic incentive to assess the risk correctly," he wrote on X. On-chain analytics from CipherScan further supported this view, noting that only 21% of the 380,000 ZEC deshielded since disclosure actually left the network, indicating limited panic-driven exit pressure.