Iran-U.S. MOU Signed as Market Focus Shifts to Execution Risk; Brent Crude Below $80, Fed Holds Rates at 3.5%-3.75%

According to QCP Group's latest macroeconomic report, the Iran-U.S. Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has been formally signed, with Brent crude falling below $80 per barrel. Market focus is shifting from initial deal relief to execution risks, as the 60-day technical negotiation window opens, with attention turning to actual tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanese ceasefire compliance.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% but signaled a commitment to maintain higher rates longer, raising its 2026 median rate projection to 3.8% from 3.4%, with the range expanding to 3.4%-4.4%. Core PCE inflation is projected at 3.30%, above the Fed's target. In tech markets, SpaceX stock has retreated to $155 from its $211 peak following its recent IPO at $135, down 27% from peak but still up 14.5% from offering price.