Jefferies cut its Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) price target to $375 and warned that the stock could start trading more like a SpaceX proxy as merger speculation builds around Elon Musk's two companies. The firm said expectations of a Tesla-SpaceX merger could turn TSLA into a "tracker" as shareholders weigh potential dilution of their stakes. TSLA shares declined 7% in June, eyeing a monthly loss despite logging two straight sessions of gains.
Jefferies Cuts Price Target and Flags SpaceX Proxy Risk
Jefferies trimmed its TSLA price target to $375, flagging a new risk for investors that growing consensus around a Tesla-SpaceX merger could make TSLA shares tied to SpaceX rather than Tesla's own fundamentals. Jefferies said Tesla did not sell off ahead of SpaceX's blockbuster IPO, but the firm warned that the market may now be pricing in a different kind of risk.
"Consensus that a merger will be next and soon may turn TSLA into a tracker as shareholders try to minimize stake dilution," Jefferies said. The research firm added that instead of trading mainly on EV deliveries, margins, robotaxi progress, or Optimus milestones, TSLA could begin to move on investor expectations around SpaceX's valuation and the potential exchange ratio in any future deal.
Jefferies also said Tesla's "valuation & estimates remain disconnected." While much of Tesla's premium valuation rests on robotaxis and humanoid robots eventually becoming high-margin businesses, Jefferies said investors may be overlooking the costly launch phase. The firm said it is "assuming launching robotaxis & humanoids will initially create loss centers."
Goldman Sachs Raises Q2 Delivery Forecast
Goldman Sachs said that Tesla's second-quarter deliveries are likely tracking ahead of the 400,000-unit consensus estimate. The firm raised its forecast to 420,000 units from 405,000, citing regional sales data from China, the U.S. and Europe.
Europe is showing strong year-over-year growth, Goldman said, though Tesla's quarter-to-date deliveries through May were still tracking down in the mid-teens from a year earlier. Goldman maintained a 'Neutral' rating and a $375 price target.
Chamath Palihapitiya Predicts Tesla-SpaceX Merger
The Tesla-SpaceX merger talks have gained momentum after SpaceX's record IPO and rapid AI expansion, with Chamath Palihapitiya predicting that Musk's companies are entering a broader consolidation phase.
Palihapitiya pointed to SpaceX's $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the company behind Cursor, as evidence of Musk's dealmaking power, saying that SpaceX's rising valuation effectively lowered the true cost of the deal. He called it "an incredible deal" and said Musk's "business intellect is off the charts."
"And now the consolidation phase will begin," Palihapitiya said. "And we're going to see Tesla and SpaceX merge. And it's going to be glorious." Musk has not dismissed the idea outright. Asked in a Forbes interview about eventually combining his companies, he said it would be "difficult" to comment given the public-company dynamics involved.
So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's third-worst performer, down about 10%.
FAQ
Why did Jefferies cut Tesla's price target?
Jefferies cut Tesla's price target to $375 due to growing merger speculation between Tesla and SpaceX, which the firm warned could cause TSLA to trade more like a SpaceX proxy rather than on Tesla's own fundamentals.
What is Goldman Sachs' forecast for Tesla's Q2 deliveries?
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Tesla's second-quarter deliveries to 420,000 units from 405,000, citing regional sales data from China, the U.S. and Europe, though the firm maintained a 'Neutral' rating and a $375 price target.
