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Private-Sector GDP Growth Slows to 1% in Q1 2026, Trailing Public Sector at 4%, Paulsen Warns

2026-06-19 04:13:10

According to economist Paul Paulsen of Leuthold Group, as reported by Business Insider, private-sector real GDP growth decelerated to just 1% in Q1 2026, significantly trailing public-sector growth of 4%. Paulsen highlighted that this marks a reversal of historical patterns where private-sector expansion typically outpaces government growth. He notes that historically, when public-sector contributions to GDP growth exceed private-sector contributions, stock markets tend to perform weakly. Paulsen cited rising government spending, including increased defense expenditures expected in Q2 due to geopolitical tensions, combined with slowing private enterprise growth driven by higher interest rates and elevated energy prices, as contributing factors. "This could bring volatility to stock markets," Paulsen wrote on Substack.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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