U.S. Auto Sales Projected to Drop 2M+ Units by 2040 as Population Growth Slows, Prices Rise

According to analysis by consulting firm Bain & Company cited by CNBC, U.S. auto sales could decline by more than 2 million units by 2040 due to slowing population growth, high vehicle prices, and changing consumer behavior. The country sold a record 17.6 million vehicles a decade ago; sales are now expected to fall significantly below that level.

Key factors driving the decline include a U.S. fertility rate of 1.6 births per woman (below the 2.1 replacement rate) and expected restrictive immigration policies halving historical net migration rates over the next 15 years. Additionally, fewer young people are obtaining driver's licenses and affordability pressures are mounting, with new vehicle monthly payments up 30% over four years and nearly one in five new cars carrying payments exceeding $1,000 monthly.