On February 25, U.S. President Trump delivered a nearly two-hour State of the Union address, setting a record for the longest in history. Although the speech covered core topics such as taxation, artificial intelligence, tariffs, and inflation, it completely omitted any mention of cryptocurrency policies or digital asset regulation. This stance was interpreted by the market as a lack of clear policy catalysts for the short-term crypto industry. Despite his children, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, being deeply involved in crypto projects like World Liberty Financial, digital assets have not entered the official policy narrative.
On the macro level, Trump defended tariff policies and expressed dissatisfaction with related Supreme Court rulings, while indicating that tariffs would be maintained through other legal channels. However, the repeated adjustments of tariff rates from 10% to 15% have increased trade policy uncertainty. Progress on EU trade agreements has been paused, and India has delayed negotiations, leading to a rise in global macro risk premiums, which directly impacts risk asset pricing logic.
Inflation remains a key market focus. Trump predicted that core inflation would fall to 1.7% by the end of 2025, but the Federal Reserve’s preferred core PCE remains around 3%, well above the 2% target. Amid persistent inflation and tariff disruptions, market expectations for the Fed’s rate cuts in 2026 have cooled, with a higher probability of long-term interest rates remaining elevated. This ongoing pressure suppresses Bitcoin prices, crypto market liquidity, and risk asset valuations.
Notably, artificial intelligence was singled out as a policy priority. Trump proposed a “user protection commitment,” requiring tech companies to build their own power facilities for data centers and emphasizing that the power grid cannot support the growing AI computing demands. Additionally, Melania Trump’s push for AI legislation was highlighted, indicating a clear policy shift toward AI industry support rather than blockchain and digital asset regulation.
From a market structure perspective, the absence of rate cut signals in the State of the Union, combined with the lack of crypto policy, suggests that in the short term, the crypto market will rely more on macro liquidity rather than policy incentives. The high interest rate environment, tariff uncertainties, and regulatory focus shifting toward AI could prolong crypto asset volatility and increase institutional sensitivity to macro data and Federal Reserve policy paths.
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