According to Dutch semiconductor observer Marc Hijink writing recently in a Dutch publication, China's most challenging bottleneck in semiconductor development remains ASML's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, for which no viable alternative exists. Hijink noted that ASML spent approximately 15 years developing EUV technology from theory to commercial production, a complex integration of light-source engineering and precision manufacturing where competitors including Japan's Nikon—which invested over 100 billion yen—ultimately failed to succeed.
While Chinese companies like Huawei are pursuing breakthroughs in chip design through open-source RISC-V architecture to circumvent U.S. export restrictions on x86 and ARM technologies, the EUV equipment sector presents a far more severe challenge. Globally, ASML maintains near-total dominance in EUV technology, and China currently has no commercially viable domestic alternative. The analysis underscores that building an independent EUV capability under current export controls would require entering uncharted technological territory.