Bitcoin Declines 52% From October 2025 High as ETF Inflows Turn to Redemptions, Enterprise Buying Weakens

According to NYDIG, Bitcoin has declined approximately 52% from its October 2025 high of around $126,000 as of June 19, entering what the firm describes as a contraction phase. Two structural demand drivers that supported bitcoin through 2025—spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows and corporate treasury purchases—have significantly weakened in 2026. ETFs have shifted from consistent inflows to increased volatility, with weekly redemptions reaching 15,000-25,000 BTC, while corporate buying has become concentrated among a small number of firms, with some miners turning to net selling.

Bitcoin historically shows weak seasonality from May through September, with August-September averaging negative returns. Against this backdrop of contraction and seasonal weakness, NYDIG cautioned that downside risks remain, with potential upside contingent on stabilization in ETF inflows and stablecoin balances.