Kevin Warsh Sworn in as Fed Chair on Friday; Rate Cut Odds Fall to 38.2% from 96% in February

KALSHI-5.63%
On Friday (May 23), Kevin Warsh is set to be sworn in as the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors. According to prediction market platform Kalshi, odds of a rate cut before 2027 have dropped to 38.2%, down from 96% in February, amid speculation about whether Warsh will meet President Donald Trump's expectations for immediate interest rate reductions. The Federal Reserve's benchmark rate currently stands at 3.50% to 3.75%. CME FedWatch shows a 98.8% probability the Fed will hold rates through June, with above 94% odds of unchanged rates through July. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where rates could be adjusted, is scheduled for June 16.
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