Major Banks Warn Oil Prices May Return Above $90 in Q3 Amid Strait of Hormuz Supply Risks

According to investment banks cited by BlockBeats on June 15, major financial institutions warn that oil prices may climb back above $90 during the third quarter as global energy markets face prolonged supply chain disruptions. Analysts at ANZ, Westpac, TD Securities, and HSBC Private Banking noted that while US-Iran tensions have eased, the Strait of Hormuz remains impaired by mine risks and vessel delays, preventing a swift return to pre-conflict supply levels.

TD Securities' commodity chief Bart Melek forecasts a crude oil inventory gap of approximately 800 million barrels through November 2026 despite normalization efforts. Institutions expect geopolitical risk premiums to persist, maintaining elevated market volatility and potentially triggering inflationary spillovers across fragile economies.