The Block’s biweekly newsletter “The Funding” Issue 53 (June 14, author Yogita Khatri) interviewed professional investors at multiple crypto funds; the main findings: most of the interviewed funds believe Bitcoin has not yet bottomed, and among funds that set a year-end target price, none expected Bitcoin to exceed $100,000 by the end of 2026, with the highest being $75,000.
Bitcoin Market Views From the Interviewed Crypto Funds
According to interviews in “The Funding,” the confirmed positions of the named respondents are:
Finality Capital (David Grider): Believes Bitcoin is in the “middle-to-late” phase of the current market cycle, expecting the true bottom in late Q3 to early Q4; currently takes a “bear market strategy,” focusing on protecting downside risks through debt, derivatives, hedging, and long/short strategies.
Digital Asset Capital Management (Richard Galvin): Takes a “relatively neutral” stance on holding Bitcoin for the next 12 months; the current cash level is the highest since the fund was established, and its Bitcoin allocation is the lowest since 2022; characterizes LP sentiment as “indifferent.”
Pantera Capital (Cosmo Jiang): A four-year Bitcoin cycle could keep the bear market going for a few more months; the market is becoming more rational, and Pantera will continue increasing exposure to DeFi and AI projects.
Hypersphere Ventures (Jack Platts): “Everyone is generally bearish on crypto,” and other areas such as AI, aerospace, medical technology, and defense technology are more attractive; its fund has expanded into AI, energy, semiconductors, and rare earths.
VanEck (Laura Vidiella del Blanco): Investors and LPs still have strong confidence in Bitcoin; believes Bitcoin is currently undervalued; holds an optimistic view on broad blockchain applications.
M11 Funds/Maven 11 (Luke Lokhorst): More inclined toward DeFi protocols with revenue, strong product-market fit, and sound tokenomics models; focuses on the debt leverage risk of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Arca (Jeff Dorman): The most promising opportunities in blockchain right now are in DeFi, tokenization, and stablecoins—not in Bitcoin itself.
Year-End Bitcoin Price Predictions From the Funds That Have Stated Views
According to The Block, among the funds that provided specific year-end target prices, the confirmed forecast figures are:
Hypersphere Ventures (Jack Platts): Base case around $55,000; bear case around $40,000; bull case around $80,000
Finality Capital (David Grider): Bottom range $45,000 to $55,000; year-end rebound target $65,000 to $75,000
The Block confirms that none of the funds that provided year-end forecasts expected Bitcoin to exceed $100,000 by the end of 2026. Most of the interviewed funds did not provide specific year-end target prices. The above are each fund’s personal predictions, not confirmed market trajectories.
Risks and Recovery Catalysts Commonly Mentioned by Multiple Funds
According to “The Funding,” the major downside risks commonly mentioned by multiple funds are: rising interest rates, tighter liquidity, geopolitical tensions, capital shifting to fast-growing industries such as AI, ETF outflows, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) debt leverage risk, and the threat from quantum computing (mentioned by M11 Lokhorst; some funds believe Bitcoin can achieve quantum resistance through upgrades).
Recovery catalysts commonly mentioned by multiple funds include: rate cuts, geopolitical easing, improved liquidity, progress on the “Clarity Act” legislation, improved ETF fund flows, and institutional demand shifting from AI stock rotations.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the coverage of this The Block survey represent overall market consensus?
Issue 53 of “The Funding” interviewed named respondents from institutions including Finality Capital, Digital Asset Capital Management, Pantera Capital, Hypersphere Ventures, VanEck, UTXO Management, Monarq Asset Management, M11 Funds, Arca, and Crypto Insights Group. This is a qualitative interview, not a systematic market consensus survey. All viewpoints represent the individual positions of the respondents and do not represent consensus in the statistical sense for the crypto market.
Why do most funds hold specific assets while being bearish on Bitcoin?
According to the report, multiple funds’ strategy is to reduce directional exposure to Bitcoin, holding more cash, while making selective investments in certain assets with strong fundamental support (such as revenue-generating DeFi protocols). Pantera’s Jiang said the market is shifting from broadly rising to being driven by fundamentals, while M11’s Lokhorst clearly prefers protocols with revenue and strong product-market fit.
What specific basis was used to list Strategy’s debt leverage as a risk?
In the interview, M11 Funds’ Lokhorst said he worries whether Strategy will continue taking on large-scale debt, and warned that any pressure on its Bitcoin holdings could send the market a “strong negative signal.” This is Lokhorst’s personal assessment and not an official financial position statement from Strategy.
