Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded to $63,000 on July 10, but the bulls then showed weakness. US May PCE inflation came in at 4.1%, and the Kalshi prediction market puts the probability of rate hikes within the year at 54%. As tensions between the US and Iran escalate, the US military has attacked 90 targets inside Iran, and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is again under threat.
US-Iran Conflict Escalates: US Attacks 90 Targets, Iran Strikes Back Across the Four Countries in the Persian Gulf
According to reports from the US Central Command and the Associated Press, on July 9, 2026 (Thursday), the US launched a new round of airstrikes inside Iran, targeting 90 locations, including airport runways, missile launch installations, air defense systems, and command-and-control networks. The US side said the strike was intended to “further weaken” Iran’s ability to “threaten freedom of navigation through the strait.”
Iran immediately retaliated by targeting US allies in the Middle East: Kuwait’s military said it shot down three ballistic missiles, one cruise missile, and ten drones; falling debris injured one person. Bahrain sounded the alert for a third time. Qatar and Jordan were also hit by missile strikes. A Jordanian government spokesperson said all incoming artillery fire had been intercepted. An Iranian official also said that the US military attacked areas near Iran’s only nuclear power plant (Bushehr).
Iran’s Ministry of Health said the airstrikes over the past two days have killed at least 14 people and injured 78, most of them military personnel. Trump previously said at the NATO Ankara summit that the ceasefire agreement “is already over.” If the conflict continues, energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz will once again face interruption risk—the strait accounts for one-fifth of global oil and natural gas trade. In June, the number of ships passing through rose from 233 in May to 576, but is now facing renewed threats.
Afterwards, both the US and Iran announced that talks will be held in Switzerland on Sunday, with the specific outcome to be determined by official announcements.
On-Chain Data by Glassnode: LTH Posts Daily Losses of $280 Million
（Source: Glassnode）
According to a July 8 report by Glassnode, the following key on-chain metrics on the Bitcoin network and institutional data stand out: the share of realized losses for long-term holders (LTH) relative to total realized value (30-day moving average) rose from 15% in early February 2026 to 43%, and daily realized losses reached $280 million (the highest since December 2022). Glassnode said that until the LTH selloff wave noticeably cools, every rebound in the market may face heavy pressure.
For spot Bitcoin ETFs, daily net outflows have fallen from $193 million at the start of June to $88.9 million, but overall they are still draining capital. ETF daily trading volume (30-day moving average) shrank to between $650 million and $950 million, down about 80% from the October 2025 peak, showing that institutional confidence has not yet returned clearly.
In the derivatives market, the put/call ratio has dropped to 0.56 (the lowest level in 2026), indicating that the market’s panic premium is fading, but traders still maintain a defensive skew on the options surface.
Kalshi Prediction Market and Fed Split: 54% Chance of Rate Hikes This Year
Based on Kalshi prediction market data, traders currently price the probability of the Fed raising rates this year at 54% (56% the previous day). The probability of no rate cuts this year is about 76% (on June 16—the day Fed Chair Kevin Warsh first presided over a meeting—jumping quickly from 68% to 77%).
The Fed’s June meeting minutes show that “many participants” believed year-end interest rates should be within the current target range (3.50%-3.75%) or slightly lower. But “many other participants” believed rates should be above the current target range, indicating a clear split within the Fed on whether further rate hikes are needed.
May PCE inflation rose year over year to 4.1%, the highest level since April 2023. The Middle East situation continues to push up energy prices, intensifying inflation pressure and further weakening the space for rate cuts.
Three Key Bottom Signals Highlighted by Glassnode
According to Glassnode’s report, to watch whether Bitcoin has truly launched a bullish reversal, focus on the following three key signals：
Cooling of LTH Selling Pressure: daily realized losses for long-term holders need to continue falling, indicating that capitulation selling pressure is fading
Spot ETF Flows Stabilize and Institutional Trading Volume Rebounds: spot Bitcoin ETFs need to shift from net outflows to net inflows, and daily trading volume must expand significantly to reflect a formal return of institutional demand
Bitcoin Spot Price Firmly Recovers $76,600: the spot price needs to hold steadily above the True Market Mean to show that the market’s overall cost-basis structure is repairing
Glassnode also noted that while US M2 money supply has reached a new high of $22.8 trillion, the Fed is still running balance sheet reduction. The three signals above must ripen at the same time to be considered key evidence for a bullish market restart. All of the above are Glassnode’s analysis viewpoints.
FAQ
What is Glassnode’s overall assessment of Bitcoin’s current position?
According to Glassnode’s July 8 report, Bitcoin is currently in a “Bottom Building” phase: the spot price has been below the True Market Mean (about $76,600) for five consecutive months, and also below the cost basis of short-term holders (about $72,200). Daily realized losses for LTH have reached $280 million (the highest since December 2022). Glassnode also points out that an extreme scenario where the price further drops to the $53,000 support cannot be completely ruled out. All of the above are analysts’ viewpoints from Glassnode.
What is Kalshi’s forecast for the Fed’s rate hikes this year?
Based on Kalshi prediction market data (as of the time of the report), traders expect the probability of the Fed raising rates this year to be 54%, and the probability of no rate cuts this year to be about 76%. The Fed is also split on the issue of rate hikes (the June minutes show that multiple members supported higher rates before year-end). The above are market-implied pricing forecasts, subject to the Fed’s official decision.
How does the US-Iran military conflict affect the Strait of Hormuz and the global energy market?
According to reports, the US military has attacked 90 targets inside Iran, and Iran’s retaliation has spread to Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Jordan. Navigation safety through the Strait of Hormuz is again threatened, and the strait accounts for one-fifth of global oil and natural gas trade. Rising energy prices could worsen US inflation pressure and further affect the Fed’s policy path. The specific geopolitical developments depend on official statements.
