Based on Polymarket prediction platform data, “What price will NVIDIA reach in May?” The total contract trading volume has reached $510,000, indicating high market attention.
Looking at the specific bet distribution, $240 accounts for a 30% probability weight, $248 is 20%, $256 is 7%, and $264 is 5%. On the downside, $192 has a 16% probability, $184 is 8%, $176 is 6%, $168 is 2%, while the probability of dropping below $160 is only 1%.
This distribution is not a symmetric shape, suggesting that participants’ expectations for upside potential are more dispersed than the downside risk. As of May 21, 2026, Gate’s market data shows NVDA’s current quote at $220.66, with the market engaged in two-way bets around this benchmark level.
What data in the latest quarterly earnings went beyond conventional expectations?
On May 20 local time, NVIDIA released its 2027 fiscal first-quarter earnings report ended April 26. In that quarter, revenue reached $8B, up 85% year over year, setting a new company record for quarterly revenue. GAAP net profit was $81.61B, up 211% year over year, and GAAP gross margin was 74.9%.
The growth rates of these two profitability metrics are significantly higher than revenue growth, reflecting the continued release of product mix optimization and scale effects.
Notably, NVIDIA made a structural adjustment to its business segments in that quarter. It reorganized from the original four segments—Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive & Robotics—into two segments: Data Center and Edge Computing.
Under the new definitions, first-quarter Data Center revenue was $75.2 billion, up 92% year over year, and up 21% quarter over quarter; Edge Computing revenue was $6.4 billion, up 29% year over year, and up 10% quarter over quarter.
How does the restructuring of the Data Center business affect valuation logic?
The segment adjustment is not just a change in how the statements are presented; it also reflects NVIDIA’s re-identification of what drives its revenue. After netting networking revenue into the Data Center segment, that business’s completeness and comparability are significantly enhanced.
The earnings report shows that under the original segmentation, Data Center revenue was $60.4 billion, up 77%. Within that, Data Center networking revenue was $14.8 billion, up 199% year over year. Networking business growth nearly doubled, implying that the expansion of AI cluster scale is driving a synchronized ramp-up of interconnect infrastructure.
For valuation models, unifying the definition of the Data Center business helps analysts more accurately estimate the value share across layers—GPUs, networking, and software—in the AI compute stack. The market’s valuation anchor for NVIDIA is shifting from single-chip unit sales toward the capability to deliver the overall AI infrastructure.
What signals do future product roadmap and revenue guidance convey?
NVIDIA’s revenue forecast midpoint for fiscal 2027 second quarter is $91 billion, with a +/-2% range. This outlook is higher than the general expectations of analysts previously. At the same time, the company expects GAAP gross margin for the second quarter to be 74.9%, with fluctuations of plus or minus 50 bps.
On the product roadmap, NVIDIA plans to start production and ship Vera Rubin chips starting in the third quarter this year. CEO Jensen Huang said on the earnings call that Vera Rubin will be more successful than Blackwell.
CFO Colette Kress further clarified that the company is confident in its $1 trillion revenue forecast for the combined Blackwell and Rubin chips from 2025 to 2027, and expects Vera CPU to open up a new market with a scale of $200 billion for NVIDIA.
These forward-looking guides shift market focus from single-quarter performance to the product cycle over the next two years, and the stock-price pricing logic tilts toward discounting future cash flows.
How do massive-scale capital expenditures and sovereign AI demand resonate together?
In the earnings call, Colette Kress disclosed several key demand-side data points. Revenue from hyperscale customers accounts for about 50% of Data Center sales, and the remaining 50% comes from AI cloud, industrial enterprises, sovereign AI, and other areas.
Sovereign AI revenue grew by more than 80% year over year, and NVIDIA’s AI infrastructure has been deployed across about 40 countries and regions. The number of partner data centers with capacity exceeding 10 megawatts has nearly doubled within a year.
Jensen Huang also pointed out that hyperscale technology companies’ total capital expenditures this year total about $1 trillion, and they are expected to maintain large-scale investment, looking toward $3 trillion or even $4 trillion. He also said NVIDIA’s growth rate should exceed the growth rate of hyperscale technology companies’ capital expenditures.
This implies that even with favorable conditions for capital spending at tech giants, NVIDIA is still likely to gain market share.
How will slower edge computing demand and a new CPU market be balanced?
Not all business lines show consistent growth. Colette Kress mentioned that due to rising memory prices, edge computing demand saw a modest decline.
Edge computing includes PCs, gaming, automotive, and robotics. In that quarter, revenue of $6.4 billion grew 29% year over year, but the quarter-over-quarter growth was only 10%, lower than the Data Center business’s quarter-over-quarter growth rate. This divergence indicates that the demand release cycle for AI inference differs from that for training.
On the other hand, the CPU business is becoming a new growth support. Jensen Huang said that the Vera CPU is the world’s first CPU designed specifically for agents. In the future, billions of agents will emerge globally; all thinking will be done on the GPU, and the coding will be completed on the CPU.
Colette Kress expects NVIDIA’s CPU revenue this year could reach $20 billion. Expanding the CPU business helps smooth edge computing’s short-term volatility and provides a second engine for long-term growth.
What signals are conveyed by the $100 billion share buyback and dividend adjustments?
In the first quarter, NVIDIA returned about $20 billion to shareholders in the form of share buybacks and cash dividends. The board also recently approved an additional $80 billion share buyback authorization. Meanwhile, the company significantly raised its quarterly dividend, from $0.01 per share to $0.25 per share.
An expanded buyback scale paired with a substantial dividend increase is typically interpreted by the market as management’s high confidence in the company’s ability to generate free cash flow. The $80 billion buyback authorization exceeds the full-year market cap of most listed companies.
Given NVIDIA’s $5.4 trillion market cap, this buyback plan is limited in percentage terms, but it strengthens expectations for funds support below the stock price on a psychological level. The priority of capital allocation is shifting from pure expansion investment toward a phase where investment and shareholder returns run in parallel.
What is the relationship between Polymarket bet distribution and fundamentals?
Comparing Polymarket’s bet distribution with fundamental information shows that $240 receives the highest probability weight of 30%, which is about an 8.7% premium over the current $220.66. $248 corresponds to an approximately 12.4% increase, $256 corresponds to 16%, and $264 corresponds to 19.6%.
The dispersion of these upside targets reflects the market’s different judgments about the persistence of performance after the earnings report. On the downside, $192 has a 16% probability, corresponding to about a 13% drop. The probabilities for $184 and $176 add up to 14%. Notably, the probability of falling below $160 is only 1%, indicating that an extremely bearish scenario lacks consensus under the current information environment.
Prediction markets are essentially a quantitative expression of information distributions and sentiment divergence—not an accurate prediction of future prices. The value of Polymarket data lies more in identifying the points of disagreement embedded in market pricing, rather than providing a single-direction investment signal.
FAQ
Q1: Does Polymarket’s prediction data have direct reference value for NVIDIA’s stock price?
Polymarket data reflects participants’ collective betting behavior, essentially a quantitative embodiment of market sentiment and information divergence—not an accurate price prediction tool. Its value is in helping investors identify price ranges where there is substantial disagreement in the market, so they can make independent judgments by combining their own fundamental analysis.
Q2: How does NVIDIA’s new business segmentation affect the interpretation of earnings reports?
Integrating business into two segments—Data Center and Edge Computing—simplifies the framework for analyzing the revenue structure. The Data Center business now uniformly includes GPU and networking revenue, making the overall delivery capability of AI infrastructure more transparent. Investors need to be mindful of segmentation changes when comparing historical data.
Q3: Is there a linkage between NVIDIA’s stock performance and the crypto market?
NVIDIA’s GPU products are widely used for crypto mining and AI computing, but demand for AI data centers today far exceeds the share of revenue related to crypto. Market volatility in crypto has significantly reduced marginal impact on NVIDIA’s overall performance. The connection between the two is more reflected in risk preference rather than fundamental transmission.
Q4: What does the $80 billion buyback plan imply for the stock price?
The buyback plan indicates that management believes the current stock price is below the company’s intrinsic value, while also reflecting confidence in future free cash flow. However, there is uncertainty in the actual execution pace and price range of the buybacks. How much support it provides to the stock price needs to be observed over a longer time horizon.
