Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on Thursday, legislation that would bar members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from placing wagers on prediction markets tied to legislation, government actions, or election results. The House Administration Committee chairman said the bill aims to prevent elected officials from profiting off information they access before the public does. The legislation follows growing bipartisan unease in Washington over lawmakers and government officials using platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket to bet on political events, including their own races.
"The American people deserve to know their Member of Congress is not profiting off insider information. The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act ensures that cannot happen," said Chairman Steil in a statement. "This legislation is critical to restoring the public's trust in their elected officials. Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome."
Bill Establishes Penalties for Prediction Market Violations
Under the measure, violators would owe a penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the wager's value, whichever is greater, plus any profit realized from the bet. Lawmakers could not use official office funds, taxpayer-funded allowances or campaign donations to cover the fines. Those who leave office without paying could be referred to the Justice Department for civil enforcement.
Legislation Builds on Congressional Stock Trading Restrictions
Steil's office said the legislation builds on the Stop Insider Trading Act, which the committee advanced in January. Steil told reporters earlier this month that he intended to add similar restrictions to a separate, broader bill banning congressional stock trading. That stock-trading bill, as written, would already bar lawmakers, spouses and dependents from buying new stocks and would penalize violators with comparable fines. The stock-trading bill has stalled since clearing committee in February, though Steil has expressed hope the House could vote on it this summer.
Federal Agencies Launch Investigations into Prediction Market Platforms
The Senate passed a resolution in April barring its own members and staff from using prediction markets. The House Oversight Committee in May opened investigations into Kalshi and Polymarket over what its chairman described as a pattern of insider trading on the platforms.
These actions followed the arrest in April of Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was accused of using confidential information to fuel a series of Polymarket bets around the January removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, netting over $400,000 in profits. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty to the charges. The trial is set for December.
FAQ
What did Rep. Bryan Steil introduce on Thursday?
Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on Thursday. The bill would bar members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from placing wagers on prediction markets tied to legislation, government actions, or election results.
What penalties does the bill establish for violations?
Violators would owe a penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the wager's value, whichever is greater, plus any profit realized from the bet. Lawmakers could not use official office funds, taxpayer-funded allowances or campaign donations to cover the fines, and those who leave office without paying could be referred to the Justice Department for civil enforcement.
What federal actions have been taken regarding prediction market platforms?
The Senate passed a resolution in April barring its own members and staff from using prediction markets. The House Oversight Committee in May opened investigations into Kalshi and Polymarket over what its chairman described as a pattern of insider trading on the platforms.
