Bitcoin (BTC) sees a strong short-term rebound, temporarily around $65,150 on July 27. Michael Saylor hinted that he will roll out “another color,” while Strategy skipped its fourth time in a row buying Bitcoin. The U.S. CFTC warned that prediction-market certifications should not use template contracts, and a post lays out rules for how event contracts handle self-certification.
Macro Events & Crypto Buzz
1、According to Cryptopolitan, Michael Saylor published a Bitcoin chart of Strategy and captioned it “We need another color,” which is the fifth tease since the company last disclosed its Bitcoin purchase (June 22). Strategy is still raising funds, but after corporate mNAV fell below 1, it moved the proceeds into a $3.23B cash reserve instead of Bitcoin. Strategy will release its second-quarter results after the U.S. market closes on July 30, and investors will watch whether Bitcoin purchases will resume.
MSTR is seen as the leveraged proxy for Saylor’s Bitcoin purchasing strategy, and dozens of treasury firms have imitated his model. Over the past two years, for the first time, Strategy has gone four consecutive weeks without adding any cryptocurrency to its portfolio.
2、According to the latest guidance issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Market Surveillance Division, it singled out prediction-market platforms such as Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and others for overreliance on “template-style” batch filings when doing event-contract self-certification. The CFTC explicitly requires that institutions must not submit blanket template certifications; they must provide specific terms for each category of event contracts, including settlement methods, data sources, and compliance analysis. Only event contracts closely related to each other can be grouped into a single “class” for consolidated filing.
The CFTC said that current simplified filing practices weaken its ability to evaluate whether various event contracts comply with core regulatory principles. At the same time, on the same day, the CFTC approved an extension of Kraken Derivatives Exchange’s registration “sleeping” status, so it can preserve the possibility of resuming business after acquiring Bitnomial.
News Updates
1、Storj parent company Storj Labs files for financial restructuring; operations, services, and the network will run as usual
2、WEMIX contract ownership hacked and issued over 5.22 million additional WEMIX tokens; cross-chain funds have been transferred to Ethereum and BSC
3、EHang? (Longxing Technology) lists today; single-signature profit highest above 20k yuan
4、BitMart announces a shutdown; the past few days’ on-chain reserves fell from about 12 million to about $2.3 million
5、WEMIX contract shows possible security issue; the project team says it is investigating
6、U.S. CFTC warns that prediction-market certifications should not use template contracts; post standardizes event-contract self-certification practices
7、At least 29 crypto exchange apps are banned from installation in Korea’s Google Store
8、Data: Tokens including SUI, EIGEN, FF, etc. will see large unlocks this week, with SUI unlocking value nearing $10 million
9、13.8 million TRUMP tokens unlocked by the TRUMP team are transferred to multiple CEX trading platforms
Market Watch
1、Latest Bitcoin news: $BTC strong short-term rebound, temporarily around $65,150; $36.64 million liquidations in the past 24 hours, with liquidations dominated by long positions;
2、The S&P 500 index rose slightly less than 0.1% on July 24, and the Dow Industrial Index gained 0.5%; but the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.6%. Things look even worse on a weekly basis. Over the past five trading days, the Nasdaq is down 2.1%, the S&P 500 is down 0.6%, and the Dow is down 0.4%. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have logged their first two-week losing streak since March. The “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks’ market value evaporated by $20k over the week. Tesla plunged 18% last week, posting its worst week since December 2022; Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta also fell more than 6%. SpaceX fell 7.2% last week.
（Source: Gate）
3、In Gate’s BTC/USDT liquidation map, based on the current 65,111.80 USDT, if it drops to around $63,861, the total liquidation amount for long positions exceeds $191 million; if it rises to around $65,305, the total liquidation amount for short positions exceeds $58.67 million. The short-side liquidation amount is significantly lower than the long side; it is recommended to manage leverage reasonably to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations during market moves.
（Source: Coinglass）
4、Within the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflows were $682 million, outflows were $711 million, for net outflows of $29 million.
（Source: Coinglass）
5、Within the past 24 hours, net outflows led in derivatives trading for $ETH, $BTC, $BANK, $ZEC, $KAITO and others, indicating potential trading opportunities.
X KOL Selected Views
Phyrex Ni（@Phyrex_Ni）：“This weekend has been quite enjoyable. Even though last Friday everything from oil prices to the stock market—and even Bitcoin’s performance—looked bad, some information trickling in over the weekend still gave the market some extra energy. The main reason is that after 13 straight days of attacks by the U.S. on Iran, there were no new actions across Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Many government personnel and market interpreters view it as a precondition for talks.”
“Of course, the focus is whether Iran is going to talk with the U.S., but I think a negotiation window has always been there. Otherwise, the U.S. and Iran wouldn’t keep restraint and confine the war to a small scope. And as I said yesterday, what may be missing is a third country giving a stepping stone. China gave one, Pakistan gave one, Europe gave one, and even the Pope gave one today. Once the stepping stone is enough, it comes down to both sides’ willingness to negotiate.”
“After the U.S. stopped attacks, Iran said it would also stop attacks on Gulf countries and U.S. interests in the region. In simple terms, this weekend the U.S. and Iran have already entered a ceasefire phase, and we hope next week can return to a full ceasefire.”
“For BTC, my two-coin position is bottoming out at $63,000. The tests and my own positions all expire by Monday, so I probably won’t get it. I’m considering whether to raise it to $64,000, because once negotiations begin, the probability of Bitcoin rising is still pretty high. I’m a bit conflicted.”
Today’s Preview
1、Germany July IFO Business Climate Index; prior value was 85.6
2、UK July CBI Retail Sales Expectations Index; prior value was -45
3、U.S. June Durable Goods Orders initial value (m/m); prior value was -4.5%
